The Cleft in Republican party may well destroy it
Since the heady days of the Coolidge administration there has been one abiding principle of the Republican party, whats good for business is good for the party. Republicans have always been seen as being bound inextricably together with big business and financial conservatism. Liberals like myself, may not agree that we should concede the correctness of their economic argument but, we have always found it secretly comforting because it represented stability and a predictability of their actions.
The parties of the mid twentieth century were far different animals with Democrats tied to the labor unions and often strongest in rural farming communities and with the poor. The Civil Rights era in the second half of the century led to the loss of the deeply democratic south and began the erosion of rural democratic support. Today's parties can be defined almost as much by where their constituents are located as by their ideas. It is no coincidence that today, deepest Dixie is the strongest republican area of the country, and urban California and New England are very predominantly Democratic.
How the Republican's found themselves in their current predicament is a tale of demographics. The final split between the Democrats and their rural base occurred when Jerry Falwell and the "moral majority" became a political force during the Reagan years. Republican's by choosing religious issues like school prayer and abortion combined with the "Southern Strategy" of raising key racial issues like affirmative action and school busing were very successful in winning over rural Democrats across the country. This was originally thought of as a good move for the party but even at that time the alarm bells should have been ringing. The Republican Party chose to all but ignore urban multicultural voters and, it has in turn, given up on the fastest growing part of the US population.
"Freedom Works" was just another well financed conservative political foundation. At it's helm was Dick Armey former republican majority leader of the House. The movement that eventually motivated so many old white people from everywhere began on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in 2008 when a CNBC reporter Rick Santelli had a kind of melt down diatribe about government and it's interference in the markets. It was probably a backlash to the Federal Government's decision to rescue the banks following the Lehman brothers collapse. Whatever it's cause, it spread like wild fire, this libertarian fever dream of an Ayn Rand style government. Dick Armey was quick to see how this movement was in direct opposition to Barack Obama and therefor a perfect fit for the Republican Party. At first they they declared they wanted no part of government they were just angry protesting citizens with three corner hats dangling tea-bags and holding Gadsden flags.
The grassroots movement was soon co opted and quickly became a successful vehicle for the Republican Party. The party saw only upside with it's integration of the tea party. It was not until the midterm elections of 2010 they eventually sensed the danger. While Freedom Works is now on the verge of bankruptcy since having to pay Armey 7 million dollars to get him to quietly leave his position. Heritage Action is the new umbrella organization, quarterbacked by former hard right Senator Jim Dement he currently makes the strategic calls for all the tea party plays.
While the Republicans were thrilled at retaking the House of Representatives in 2010 they they should have swept both houses and regained total control over the Congress. Republican's have found their newest and loudest constituency the tea party had nominated candidates so extreme they were almost a farce. Republicans could have run experienced candidates for these seats and likely won but, the tea party had dominated the primary process. Candidates like Christine O'Donell who had to run the " I am not a witch" ad to clarify her relationship to the dark arts. In Nevada everyone was sure Harry Reid was finished until Sharon Angle who wanted to get rid of the IRS, Education Department, and get us out of the United Nations won the GOP primary. Then there was Arizona tea party candidate Sue Lowden who's answer to healthcare reform was to barter "chickens for checkups". In the end the Democrats held the Senate and with it 2/3 of the combined power of the Congress and Presidency.
Now, like flesh eating bacteria, the tea party is devouring it's host from within. The constant threat of primary challenges from the right has driven party to a point where it stands little hope of competing on a national level. It has decimated the moderate wing of the GOP and has now put the few remaining eastern Republicans in danger. John Boehner did not want the current government shutdown he experienced the last shutdown in 95 and knew it eventually cost Newt Gingrich his position as speaker. The moderates knew this was a disaster in the making and wanted to avoid this mess with the shutdown. They could have made an ideological stand to save the party but, they chose to avoid confrontation now the long term damage to the national image of the party is clear. The tea-party sees this only a positive for it's members, they have fought the good ideological fight and they are still able to pull the party further to the right.
The business wing of the party the old Nelson Rockefeller Republicans, represent the folks who write those huge checks for the foundations. the are definitely not happy. This week they saw how default might cost them many billions of dollars and they were quick to tell Boehner and McConnell to stop the madness, post haste. At this point it's hard to see how the Republicans can repair the internal damage to their party. After Mitt Romney's 5 million vote loss to Obama in his second term, the party performed a so called "autopsy" where they looked at at the reasons they were so soundly defeated. Problems with voting blocks of women, minorities and young voters were specifically identified. Party chair Reince Pribus said everything would be addressed but over 9 months later the problems remain unaddressed and unresolved becoming, if anything, even worse.
The Republicans have to realize that older and whiter is not a long term winning combination for them, each week in the US over 2,000 young Hispanics turn 18 and become eligible to vote. With gerrymandering of state districts and a delay on immigration reform the GOP has been able to hide demographic tide changes in the body politic. They may be able to hold on to the House for one more term in 2014. Like the Dutch boy with his finger in the dyke, the pressure is building on the other side. Unless major structural changes are made within the party they cannot remain competitive in national politics.
Since the heady days of the Coolidge administration there has been one abiding principle of the Republican party, whats good for business is good for the party. Republicans have always been seen as being bound inextricably together with big business and financial conservatism. Liberals like myself, may not agree that we should concede the correctness of their economic argument but, we have always found it secretly comforting because it represented stability and a predictability of their actions.
The parties of the mid twentieth century were far different animals with Democrats tied to the labor unions and often strongest in rural farming communities and with the poor. The Civil Rights era in the second half of the century led to the loss of the deeply democratic south and began the erosion of rural democratic support. Today's parties can be defined almost as much by where their constituents are located as by their ideas. It is no coincidence that today, deepest Dixie is the strongest republican area of the country, and urban California and New England are very predominantly Democratic.
How the Republican's found themselves in their current predicament is a tale of demographics. The final split between the Democrats and their rural base occurred when Jerry Falwell and the "moral majority" became a political force during the Reagan years. Republican's by choosing religious issues like school prayer and abortion combined with the "Southern Strategy" of raising key racial issues like affirmative action and school busing were very successful in winning over rural Democrats across the country. This was originally thought of as a good move for the party but even at that time the alarm bells should have been ringing. The Republican Party chose to all but ignore urban multicultural voters and, it has in turn, given up on the fastest growing part of the US population.
"Freedom Works" was just another well financed conservative political foundation. At it's helm was Dick Armey former republican majority leader of the House. The movement that eventually motivated so many old white people from everywhere began on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in 2008 when a CNBC reporter Rick Santelli had a kind of melt down diatribe about government and it's interference in the markets. It was probably a backlash to the Federal Government's decision to rescue the banks following the Lehman brothers collapse. Whatever it's cause, it spread like wild fire, this libertarian fever dream of an Ayn Rand style government. Dick Armey was quick to see how this movement was in direct opposition to Barack Obama and therefor a perfect fit for the Republican Party. At first they they declared they wanted no part of government they were just angry protesting citizens with three corner hats dangling tea-bags and holding Gadsden flags.
The grassroots movement was soon co opted and quickly became a successful vehicle for the Republican Party. The party saw only upside with it's integration of the tea party. It was not until the midterm elections of 2010 they eventually sensed the danger. While Freedom Works is now on the verge of bankruptcy since having to pay Armey 7 million dollars to get him to quietly leave his position. Heritage Action is the new umbrella organization, quarterbacked by former hard right Senator Jim Dement he currently makes the strategic calls for all the tea party plays.
While the Republicans were thrilled at retaking the House of Representatives in 2010 they they should have swept both houses and regained total control over the Congress. Republican's have found their newest and loudest constituency the tea party had nominated candidates so extreme they were almost a farce. Republicans could have run experienced candidates for these seats and likely won but, the tea party had dominated the primary process. Candidates like Christine O'Donell who had to run the " I am not a witch" ad to clarify her relationship to the dark arts. In Nevada everyone was sure Harry Reid was finished until Sharon Angle who wanted to get rid of the IRS, Education Department, and get us out of the United Nations won the GOP primary. Then there was Arizona tea party candidate Sue Lowden who's answer to healthcare reform was to barter "chickens for checkups". In the end the Democrats held the Senate and with it 2/3 of the combined power of the Congress and Presidency.
Now, like flesh eating bacteria, the tea party is devouring it's host from within. The constant threat of primary challenges from the right has driven party to a point where it stands little hope of competing on a national level. It has decimated the moderate wing of the GOP and has now put the few remaining eastern Republicans in danger. John Boehner did not want the current government shutdown he experienced the last shutdown in 95 and knew it eventually cost Newt Gingrich his position as speaker. The moderates knew this was a disaster in the making and wanted to avoid this mess with the shutdown. They could have made an ideological stand to save the party but, they chose to avoid confrontation now the long term damage to the national image of the party is clear. The tea-party sees this only a positive for it's members, they have fought the good ideological fight and they are still able to pull the party further to the right.
The business wing of the party the old Nelson Rockefeller Republicans, represent the folks who write those huge checks for the foundations. the are definitely not happy. This week they saw how default might cost them many billions of dollars and they were quick to tell Boehner and McConnell to stop the madness, post haste. At this point it's hard to see how the Republicans can repair the internal damage to their party. After Mitt Romney's 5 million vote loss to Obama in his second term, the party performed a so called "autopsy" where they looked at at the reasons they were so soundly defeated. Problems with voting blocks of women, minorities and young voters were specifically identified. Party chair Reince Pribus said everything would be addressed but over 9 months later the problems remain unaddressed and unresolved becoming, if anything, even worse.
The Republicans have to realize that older and whiter is not a long term winning combination for them, each week in the US over 2,000 young Hispanics turn 18 and become eligible to vote. With gerrymandering of state districts and a delay on immigration reform the GOP has been able to hide demographic tide changes in the body politic. They may be able to hold on to the House for one more term in 2014. Like the Dutch boy with his finger in the dyke, the pressure is building on the other side. Unless major structural changes are made within the party they cannot remain competitive in national politics.
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